WE HAVE CROSSED SEVEN OF NINE RED LINES GLOBALLY
Some science related stuff, unnerving but necessary.
WE HAVE CROSSED SEVEN OF NINE RED LINES GLOBALLY
Well I settled on climate change to next to write about once again,
Every bit of news on this front is only that more discouraging.
How we know we have ocean acidification now checked off,
And we only know that Trump will gum up the works for addressing it,
Very little appears to be feasibly possible at this particular junction,
Even though the Europeans seem to have their heads out of their asses.
Changes in biosphere integrity - that we are losing our pollinators,
Really, novel entities (disruption of natural element cycles), what’s that,
Oh yes land system change (reduction in natural land); damn,
So we have freshwater change, that is a reduction in it; perspire,
Somehow there is now a modification of biochemical flows; what,
Even someone with a science background has a hard time contemplating,
Do we really stand a chance as an intelligent ape much longer?
Something says we’re in more trouble than we realize right now,
Each red line once exceeded results in serious harm to the planet,
Verily I will say that I now wish I was a dummy and could ignore it,
Even though the slots for such dummies are completely full,
Now we are at 77% done crossing the nine red lines.
Oh, I can only remember that changes have been more than expected,
For we have really painted ourselves into a corner.
Nothing (in an ideal world) should prevent us from more action,
Indeed there is too much green colored money thwarting all efforts,
Nevertheless we of good faith and sound minds can make a difference,
Even with the heavy lift we must not surrender to ignoramuses.
Republicans are smothered from inaction inside donor’s pockets,
Each one may have religious beliefs that prevent rationality,
Democracy is the only possibility for any kind of fix.
Lines scratched into our global sphere, isn’t there an urgency,
It might seem that the “Final Catastrophe” or “Apocalypse” looms,
Now to be fatalistic about it all strikes me as pigeonhearted,
Either we deal with it or we face extinction going forward,
Stupidity, widespread, is our greatest obstacle to overcome.
Global warming is saying the joke is on you Homo sapiens,
Likely I’ll be in the ground before the climatic mayhem, but who knows,
Oh today, scientists from 29 countries are telling us how it is,
But mostly there are only deaf ears in which nothing registers,
Authoritarians only wanting to steal what’s not nailed down,
Literally, I’m far from soothed by writing about such things,
Like we’ve crossed many red lines already with little action,
Yet I’ll publish my little ditty and maybe sleep a little better tonight.
WE HAVE CROSSED SEVEN OF NINE RED LINES GLOBALLY
“Nature knows no pause in progress and development, and attaches her curse on all inaction.”
Johann Wolfgang von Goethe
Johann Wolfgang von Goethe (28 August 1749 – 22 March 1832) was a German polymath, who is widely regarded as the greatest and most influential writer in the German language. His work has had a profound and wide-ranging influence on Western literary, political, and philosophical thought from the late 18th century to the present day.A poet, playwright, novelist, scientist, statesman, theatre director, and critic, his works include plays, poetry and aesthetic criticism, as well as treatises on botany, anatomy and color.
The Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK) is advancing the frontier of integrated research for global sustainability, and for a safe and just climate future.
The following was found on social media (X and Bluesky) of which I wrote my acrostic free verse today. This was all new to me, perhaps not to others.
Earth has already crossed 7 out of 9 "red lines"
The concept of Planetary Boundaries (PB) was introduced in 2009 by scientists from the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK). According to it, the Earth has nine boundaries or "red lines."
Crossing them could disrupt the stability and habitability of our planet Earth, which has remained stable for the past 12,000 years.
Now, the situation has changed!
recognize
Scientists from 29 countries have published research in Science Advances, reporting that humanity is now crossing the seventh dangerous boundary, called a "red line."
What are these "red lines"?
They're critical limits that must not be exceeded to prevent serious harm to the planet.
Here are these boundaries, with the pluses next to the ones that are already crossed:
(+) Climate change
(+) Change in biosphere integrity
(+) Novel entities (disruption of natural element cycles)
(+) Land system change (reduction of natural land)
(+) Freshwater change (depletion of freshwater resources)
(+) Modification of biogeochemical flows
(+-) Ocean acidification
Unfortunately, in 2024, we’re crossing another planetary boundary — Ocean Acidification.
These PBs we have not yet crossed:
(-) Stratospheric ozone depletion
(-) Atmospheric aerosol loading
The director of the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Johan Rockstrom, said:
"We recognise that the planet's health ... is at such risk today that we in science must also now step up and step right out into the uncomfortable zone and say that we are now committing ourselves to produce every year a scientific measuring of the entire health assessment - a risk assessment - across all the planetary boundaries."
This problem concerns not only scientists, but all people on planet Earth.
Therefore, everyone needs to learn about climate and share information with those who are not yet aware.
Information on Potsdam Institute. Several recent social media posts.
On BlueSky
PIK_Climate
@pik-potsdam.bsky.social
Viewpoint of Felix Matthes (@oekoinstitut.bsky.social) today in @tspbackground.bsky.social: "Those who are today questioning the German climate neutrality target are ultimately (consciously or unconsciously) also concerned with massively changing essential pillars of European climate policy." ½
2/2 And further: "The transition from a system characterized by operating costs to one characterized by capital costs leads to a "mountain of investment" that must be addressed with an enlightened policy mix."
On X
@PIK_Climate
Weekend docu tip: PIKs Sina Loriani explains #tippingpoints: "You have a tipping point when you can kick off something with a small nudge, and it just self-amplifies without you doing any further change. The system changes itself."
“Policymakers should strengthen their focus on land as a cornerstone of global sustainability,” states PIKs Claudia Hunecke. Neglecting land degradation would risk pushing humanity beyond its safe operating space, worsening poverty, migration & conflict.
BREAKING: On December 1, a day before COP16 starts in Riyadh, @UNCCD and @PIK_Climate released a special report. The analysis warned that land degradation has now crossed a threshold, with Earth’s capacity to sustain humanity threatened.
Misinformation leading to mistrust is a major driver of pandemics. During COVID-19, countries with high trust in their governments had up to 40% lower infection rates. It’s not just about vaccines—it’s about trust!
From Potsdam Institute’s website.
3 Million Years
Ocean floor deposits and model calculations have confirmed that in the past 3 million years, the global mean temperature has never been more than two degrees above pre-industrial levels, with fluctuating CO2 levels in the atmosphere. Since the beginning of industrialization, more CO2 has accumulated in the atmosphere through the burning of coal, oil and gas than probably ever before in the past 3 million years. Thus, in our current century, there is a real threat that without effective climate policy the 2-degree limit of global warming will be breached for the first time – with far-reaching consequences.
Several definitions of terms within my acrostic verse.
Change in biosphere integrity" refers to the decline in the health and diversity of life on Earth, including ecosystems and species, which impacts the planet's ability to regulate itself through processes like energy balance and chemical cycles; essentially, it signifies a disruption in the overall functioning of the Earth's biosphere, often caused by human activities like habitat destruction, overexploitation, and climate change.
Modification of biochemical flows" refers to the disruption or alteration of the natural movement of chemical elements like carbon, nitrogen, phosphorus, and sulfur through an ecosystem, often caused by human activities which can significantly impact the balance and functioning of the environment, leading to issues like eutrophication, climate change, and biodiversity loss.
Disruption of natural element cycles," also known as disruption of biogeochemical cycles, refers to human activities that significantly alter the natural movement and balance of elements like carbon, nitrogen, and phosphorus within the Earth's ecosystems, often leading to environmental issues like climate change, pollution, and ecosystem imbalances; key examples include deforestation, burning fossil fuels, and excessive fertilizer use in agriculture, which can drastically increase greenhouse gases in the atmosphere and disrupt nutrient levels in water bodies.
From Potsdam Institute’s website the following two items.
100 coronaviruses
Over the past century, global greenhouse gas emissions have led to a sharp increase in the number of bat species in the southern Chinese Yunnan province. Bats in this area have been suggested as the original carriers of SARS-CoV-2, the virus that causes Covid-19. Scientists from Cambridge, Potsdam and Hawaii showed in a study that climate change caused shifts in the natural vegetation of the region, which allowed c. 40 bat species, carrying around 100 coronaviruses, to expand into newly suitable habitat. This process would have likely created new opportunities for viruses to be transmitted or evolve, potentially facilitating the eventual spill-over to humans. In this way, climate change may have played an important role in the outbreak of SARS-CoV-2.
10 days = -1% growth
Economic growth goes down when the number of wet days and days with extreme rainfall go up. PIK researchers found that statistically 10 more wet days in a year reduce economic growth of a region by 1%. Rich countries are most severely affected, especially the manufacturing and service sectors. The data analysis of more than 1.500 regions over the past 40 years shows a clear connection and suggests that a rising number of daily rainfall extremes, caused by human-made climate change, will harm the global economy.
I came across this site in my explorations today on X. Fear of another pandemic with Republicans in charge is only another issue to deal for which I thought this graphic was good. Note the dangers of lack of trust and of misinformation. I don’t have to spend time on rehashing that, we all know the spreaders of lies.
Hopefully some valuable information was learned by the reader. As I’ve said it’s less stressful just to tune it all out. But we’re responsible liberals, we don't do that. I have a pseudo-sonnet today.
We’re Down Seven
All rational people agree that we are in a big bind,
Seven of nine red lines crossed so far,
Us with the MAGA crowd and Russia with their autocratic czar,
Climate collapse can not help but to be one one’s mind,
Solution oriented people in leadership hard to find,
We have to do much better than our normal par,
All the science deniers are much more than bizarre,
We will have to collectively kick hard some behinds.
It might be easier to try and forget it all,
But with each new bit of bad news in our ears,
The gas, oil and coal titans are not worth any tears,
They say so what if our civilization falls,
As long as I got my silver I’m in hog heaven,
Only two red lines left to screw up - we’re down seven.
Thanks for partaking in my little scamper into science related things. I was especially sickened by Trump’s electoral victory due to the climate crises. He is the very worst person in the very worst political party for anything doing with science, especially climate change.
214th posting, December 8, 2024.